Re-engineering Venture Capital Market in the CEMAC Transformation Potentials Perspectives.

1.0 History

The Stock Exchange of Cameroon or the Stock Exchange or the Douala Stock Exchange or the DSX was created by and is organised in accordance with the provisions of Law N° 99/015 of the 22nd December 1999. The origin of the market in Douala began in a project sponsored by CEMAC having to do with creating stock exchanges in Gabon and Cameroon. CEMAC is the abbreviation for Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa. DSX is owned by APECCAM, (the Credit Association of Cameroon); by Cameroonian corporate interests; and by the government.

The Douala Stock Exchange is the sole agent authorised to carry out stock exchange transactions and functions within the territory of the Republic of Cameroon (Ndedi, et al 2015). Its principal functions according to Article 3 of Douala Stock Exchange listed  the organisation of the market; the negotiation of transferable securities; the acceptance, the listing and delisting or stocks, shares and transferable securities; special operations; the conclusion of transactions; and the setting of prices for services. Douala Stock Exchange (DSX) began operational in 2006, 5 years after its was established with a similar goals of all exchanges (that is, to stimulate economic growth and professionalizing the financial sector).

An analysis into DSX operation in 10 years (2006-2015) indicated that it is far from its original goal of contributing to Cameroon`s economic growth, this is an issue of concern to both government and management authority. In order to revive the Douala Stock Exchange (DSX), the Cameroonian government is expected to soon list new public and para-public companies. Also, the Cameroon government initiated the operation 2035 goal with the primary goal of becoming an emerging economy by 2035 (Itoe, et al 2016). The DSX and the introduction of government bond in 2010 are core capital market institution and instrument align to the achievement of this goal. With the announced arrival of public and para-public companies on the DSX, the Finance Minister hopes to “encourage private companies of growing sectors (energy, banks, insurance, agro-industry) to mobilise the financial market.”

Traditional theorists believed that financial market in general has no correlation with economic growth(Alajekwu and Achugbu, 2012). This proposition aroused studies on finding the effect of financial market on growth. Ample of studies have debunked the traditionalists and established association between stock market and economic growth. In a developing economy like Cameroon, the development and growth of capital market and stock exchange could have important implications for economic activity. Thus the establishment of Douala Stock Exchange (DSX) has far economic implication for the region.

 The main reasons for policy intervention by the government varies, but it is meant to correct for market failures; achieve a more equitable distribution of income and wealth; and improve the performance of the economy. Cameroon is preparing to restart the process initiated in 2006 with the listing of Société des eaux minérales du Cameroun on the DSX. The experiment was replicated in 2008 with the sale of State’s stake in Safacam via the DSX and again in 2009 with Socapalm. Nine years later, only these three companies are listed on the Cameroonian financial market, although the government had planned to list 10 companies over a five-year period. The potentials for a rapid transformations are there and a smart solution is rolled out by government in collaboration with external support.

CHALLENGES IN DSX OPERATIONS

The dynamite of the capital market and stock exchange of Cameroon has its shares in terms of operational challenges. The current political, economic, and historical, growth and transformational potentials of the country can be analyzed using the re-engineering capital market and stock exchange of Cameroon as an instrument to achieve this objective. Douala Stock Exchange faced various operational challenges.

One of the challenges is the indifference, doubt and drastic conditions of entry into the DSX. Market in Douala still does not have that much requests for quotations from companies operating in Cameroon because of these reasons. Looking at this challenge from government official perspective, I would seek for collaboration between various stakeholders (such as companies in various sectors, shareholders forum, academicians and general investing public). First, there is need to create awareness of the activities and important of stock exchange to educate the stakeholders of benefits in trading at the stock exchange market. A close working relationship with other countries in sub-Sahara Africa such as Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), Nigeria Stock Exchange (NSE), and Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) will be useful in solving the problem of indifference attitude of stakeholders in developing the stock market. Furthermore, I will advise the government to open up a friendly business environment in which companies are given tax incentives or tax holiday of say 3 to 5 years exceptions for successful trading in the stock market.

Another significant challenges in DSX operation is the foreign companies unwilling to trading in the stock exchange market due to lack of interest and opportunity. Low awareness of activities of DSX and interest from investing public contribute to most companies’ unwilling attitude in trading in the DSX. Foreign companies prefer to source for finance for its expansion and operation privately from parent companies. This is what probably explains why the company Germano -Swiss law ACCANTUM , specialized in soft power reserves to go public in Cameroon , while it operates a large commercial offensive in Africa.  Also, a company like International Bank of Cameroon for savings and credit ( BICEC) , a subsidiary of French group BPCE , large size of the CAC 40 in France , despite its performance ( first bank in Cameroon ) , is not interested despite its 594 billion turnover .

In the same veil are the two major mobile phone companies, Orange Cameroon and MTN Cameroon with turnover of over 160 billion CFA francs and 234 billion CFA francs respectively. These heavy weights of the Cameroonian economy could densify the market capitalization of the DSX. Without this contribution, the capitalization of about 1.7 billion francs CFA is far 458 billion of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), the first stock exchange in Africa. DSX could copy JSE and NSE for possibility of a dual listing of companies; this will certainly help in economic growth and development.  

Lastly, the reluctance of companies in Cameroon to be listed in primary or secondary market is due to the fact that Cameroonian companies generally operate on family-type buildings with the result, financial statements far from reliable. Hence, the major shareholders are afraid to go public.


2.0 Theory of Change

Theory of Change is essentially a comprehensive description and illustration of how and why a desired change is expected to happen in a particular context. INSP, (2005) describe “A theory of change as the articulation of the underlying beliefs and assumptions that guide a service delivery strategy and are believed to be critical for producing change and improvement. Theories of change represent beliefs about what is needed by the target population and what strategies will enable them to meet those needs. They establish a context for considering the connection between a system’s mission, strategies and actual outcomes, while creating links between who is being served, the strategies or activities that are being implemented, and the desired outcomes.”

Theory of Change (TOC) is focused in particular on mapping out or “filling in” what has been described as the “missing middle” between what a program or change initiative does (its activities or interventions) and how these lead to desired goals being achieved. A theory of change has two broad components. The first component of a theory of change involves conceptualizing and operationalizing the three core frames of the theory. These frames define:

  • Populations: who you are serving.
  • Strategies: what strategies you believe will accomplish desired outcomes.
  • Outcomes: what you intend to accomplish.

The second component of a theory of change involves building an understanding of the relationships among the three core elements and expressing those relationships clearly. The theory of change is defined by the three core elements and the relationship that exists between them.

What Is the Process of Creating a TOC?

The first step is for stakeholders to be clear about what they want to produce through their initiative. In our study of DSX activities, it was discovered that companies refuse to be listed in the stock market for various reasons; some are indifference, doubt, lack of interest and opportunity, ability to source for fund privately through parent company. Management of DSX and government should take the first step to reposition the market by identifying the desired long-term goals and then works back from these to identify all the conditions (outcomes) that must be in place (and how these related to one another causally) for the goals to occur. The DSX just like other African stock markets is small with few listed companies and low market capitalization and suffer from the problem of low liquidity (Brownhilder, 2015). For a meaningful development and growth to take place in DSX and Cameroon economy, there is need for application of change theory. The low liquidity makes it harder to support the local market with its own trading system, market analysis, and brokers since the business volume is too low.

The next step is for stakeholders to think about all of the preconditions—the building blocks or requirements—that must exist in order to reach their long-term goal (Anderson, 2005). Stakeholders (Management of DSX and government in this study) need to consider, in light of this big picture perspective, which of these preconditions (otherwise known as outcomes) they will take responsibility for producing. Some preconditions are beyond the sphere of influence of any single initiative, such as needing a stable economy to produce enough jobs to reach an employment goal. Others may be beyond one program’s influence, but stakeholders could suggest ways that a particular program may be able to influence other programs to act, or they could identify areas for strategic collaboration or partnerships.

During the process of creating the pathway of change, participants are required to articulate as many of their assumptions about the change process as they can so that they can be examined and even tested to determine if any key assumptions are hard to support (or even false). There are typically three important types of assumptions to consider: (a) assertions about the connections between long term, intermediate and early outcomes on the map; (b) substantiation for the claim that all of the important preconditions for success have been identified; and (c) justifications supporting the links between program activities and the outcomes they are expected to produce. A fourth type of assumption which outlines the contextual or environmental factors that will support or hinder progress toward the realization of outcomes in the pathway of change is often an additional important factor in illustrating the complete theory of change.

3.0 Logic Model

A logic model presents a picture of how your effort or initiative is supposed to work. It explains why your strategy is a good solution to the problem at hand. Effective logic models make an explicit, often visual, statement of the activities that will bring about change and the results you expect to see for the community and its people. A logic model keeps participants in the effort moving in the same direction by providing a common language and point of reference.

4.0 Public Sector Comparator

In Public Administration, the Public Sector Comparator (PSC) is a tool used by governments in determining the proper service provider for a public sector project. It consists of an estimate of the cost that the government would pay were it to deliver a service by itself. The World Bank has its own definition, wherein a PSC “is used by a government to make decisions by testing whether a private investment proposal offers value for money in comparison with the most efficient form of public procurement.” Generally, the PSC allows governments to figure out if a public–private partnership or other arrangement would be more cost effective. The PSC is most commonly used in UK, Australia, Hong Kong and Canada. This is a tool that should be considered in targeting the best value for money as the region targets its emergence projects. Industrialization goes with infrastructure development and high quality service delivery. Leaving things entirely to the government or private hands especially in key areas in the region maybe problematic. The PSC should be tested and used to get the best value for our scarce resources as we move ahead.

5.0 Political Motivation

Government control and political motivation is key in achieving the expected outcome of a capital market. Instability and weak systems will damage considerably the investment atmosphere that may pull capital into a given market. Corporate restructuring that is sparked by the threat of a takeover provides evidence that corporate governance limits of large diversified (M-form) firms may exist. Analysis proposes that poor corporate monitoring, which is due to atomistic ownership patterns and inadequate board of director governance, an emphasis on incentive compensation, and free cash flows, may lead to higher levels of diversification. If diversification results in loss of strategic control and poor performance, the threat of a takeover is likely to be related to the incidence of corporate restructuring. Corporate restructuring, in turn, is likely to (result in the correction of inadequate governance patterns, create a more focused diversification strategy, increase strategic control, reduce reliance on bureaucratic control through reduced corporate staff, and increase the performance of the firm and shareholder wealth. This opinion is widely shared by Robert E. Hoskisson1 and Thomas A. Turk2 [Corporate Restructuring]. The government may even with the political motivation may have suffered considerable losses if they have to even take over and restructure.it is therefore imperative that institutions be strengthened

The internationalization and globalization of capital markets greatly complicates the tasks of national financial regulators. It is becoming increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to regulate the activities of banking and securities firms and the broad range of transactions in which they engage on a national level. In this article I explore the process of international regulatory harmonization in capital markets, focusing especially on the mechanisms (political pressure, market pressure, and institutional arrangements) that facilitate this process. I argue that the United States and the United Kingdom are dominant players in the capital market and that the factors most relevant for understanding harmonization processes are (1) whether other jurisdictions have incentives to emulate the regulatory innovations of the dominant financial centers, and (2) whether the dominant centers experience negative externalities in the process. These two factors shed considerable light on whether harmonization will be spurred primarily by market forces or by politics; they also suggest the likely role of international institutions in the process of regulatory harmonization. The argument is illustrated using four issue areas: capital adequacy requirements for banks, anti-money laundering rules, accounting standards, and information sharing among securities regulators.[Beth A Simons]

6.0 Business Processes {Input-Output-Process}

Business processes in the capital market are key to the success of its outcome. While Lean Six Sigma techniques reliably contribute to operational excellence, they do not necessarily identify the full impact of business process improvement programs. Specifically for Six Sigma, there has been reason for much criticism in the past. Example of real-life cases related to the enhancement of a Capital Markets global business service delivery operation, and describes how to engage “client” and “delivery” executives in order to tightly align technical project execution with business strategy. A parallel process brings together delivery and service line managers, to create and execute a continuous improvement road map. This results in both better alignment with business priorities and a deeper understanding of the full business impacts by key client decision-makers. Better, more holistic decisions are hence taken – resulting in stronger business impact. These aspects are essential for the “industrialization of business processes” to become a reality. The Douala stock exchange is quite advanced but challenges still exist to enhance the business processes. It is important to determine the input-processes-output and outcome of the capital market.

Business enterprises routinely partner with offshore IT providers with the goal of reducing operating costs for specific components of the business infrastructure. This tends to obscure the broader benefits of advanced delivery models such as business process outsourcing. For example, the business value of more responsive customer service or streamlined regulatory compliance may not be properly measured in a setting where cost-cutting is the stated objective. This is most likely to happen an improvement project is limited to process owners – as opposed to business owners or senior management of the “client” organization.

Inclusion of client executives and aligning project execution with broader business priorities has the – often unused – potential to bring to light the indirect benefits and provide visibility to invest in areas that create significant competitive advantages. At the same time, this increased visibility provides a powerful vehicle for the provider to demonstrate business value. These considerations hold true regardless of whether the service provider is an external entity, or internal shared services and captives. In our experience however, internal shared services may lack the program management rigor to perform this alignment, and leave value “on the table”.

Genpact had the opportunity to carry out a rigorous assessment of this issue when it established a business group called CMITS (Capital Markets – IT Services) built from a capital markets IT solutions provider it acquired in 2012. The CMITS team had a good track record of process improvement for its business clients, but it lacked Genpact’s ingrained Lean and Six Sigma DNA. The process of integrating the Genpact service model into CMITS set the stage for detailed assessment and documentation of techniques for simultaneously achieving operational excellence and articulating outcomes to key client decision-makers.

Genpact quality leaders supported the CMITS integration process with a series of brainstorming sessions with account and delivery managers to articulate the principles underlying the company’s leading-edge quality processes. Three key insights were central to the resulting strategy for building these capabilities within CMITS. First, Lean Six Sigma on its own will reliably yield operational results but not necessarily communicate outcomes to C-suite executives or CXOs. Second, engagement of CXOs in the governance process both improves alignment with customer priorities and communicates results. And third, it is necessary to assess the broader business impact of process improvements beyond the operational measures specified in the Service Level Agreement (SLA). All three principles should be integrated into project governance processes. This model is recommended for the regional capital market.

7.0 Risk Transfer Analysis

The capital market risk usually defines the risk involved in the investments. The stark potential of experiencing losses following a fluctuation in security prices is the reason behind the capital market risk. The capital market risk cannot be diversified.
The capital market risk can also be referred to as the capital market systematic risk. While an individual is investing on a security, the risk and return cannot be separated. The risk is the integrated part of the investment. The higher the potential of return, the higher is the risk associated with it.

The examination of the involved in the capital market investment is the one of the prime aspects of investing. It can be easily said that the risk distinguishes an investment from the savings. The systematic risk is also common to the entire class of liabilities or assets.
Depending on the economic changes the value of investments can fall enormously. There may be some other financial events also impacting the investment markets. In order to give a check to the capital market risk, the asset allocation can be fruitful in some cases.
Any investment in stocks or bonds comes with the following types of risks:
Market Risk
Industry Risk
Regulatory Risk
Business Risk
The market risk defines the overall risk involved in the capital market investments. The stock market rises and falls depending on a number of issues. The collective view of the investors to invest in a particular stock or bond plays a significant role in the stock market rise and fall. Even if the company is going through a bad phase, the stock price may go up due to a rising stock market. While conversely, the stock price may fall because the market is not steady even if the investor’s company is doing well. Hence, these are the market risks that the stocks investors generally face.

The industry risk affects all the companies of a certain industry. Hence the stocks within an industry fall under the industry risk. The regulatory risk may affect the investors if the investor’s company comes under the obligation of government implemented new regulations and laws. The business risk may affect the investors if the company goes through some convulsion depending on management, strategies, market share and labor force.

More Information About Capital Market

8.0 Importance of Statistics

A capital market cannot function without data. The regional capital market needs to incorporate the aspect of generating and using evidence as a continuous method to improve the management and sustainable growth of the market. The education of tomorrow will be done using closed and business is no exception to this concept .The incorporation of smart management tools is limited I performance without the availability of structured data collection and management tools.

1010 data management toolkit has been tested in capital markets .

Generate a competitive advantage in an industry that is almost entirely based on data. Global capital markets firms require the 1010data platform’s rich analytical systems that can comprehend large volumes of data with unmatched speed.  The 1010data platform:

  • Enables users of every level of sophistication to leverage data-driven insights to generate competitive advantage 
  • Contains solutions based on demanding requirements from years of working with leading capital markets firms 
  • Boasts success and innovation unmatched by any other solution 

Mortgage and Asset-Backed Securities

In-depth analysis of multiple integrated datasets is critical to accurately predict future loan performance and cash flow. 1010data’s platform allows you to quickly generate insights with seamless data mash-ups from multiple vendors or other sources. Quickly and easily mash-up all types of data: 

  • Loan-level
  • Home price
  • Borrower credit 
  • Economic
  • User-uploaded datasets

Our Trillion-Row Spreadsheetsm  makes Big Data Discovery easy by coming equipped with an advanced analytics function library. Perform fast, powerful, and rich analysis, from simple to sophisticated. Example analytics include: 

  • Time series analysis 
  • Time shifting
  • Linear regression 
  • Principal component analysis 
  • Stratification 
  • Machine learning
  • Linear recursion 
  • Logistic regression 
  • Statistical modeling

1010data provides instant access to datasets from leading data providers through a single, uniform interface which allows you to seamless mash-up data from multiple vendors or other sources: 

  • CoreLogic
  • Black Knight Data & Analytics
  • Fannie Mae
  • Freddie Mac
  • Standard & Poor’s 
  • Equifax
  • Transunion
  • Altos Research 
  • and more

Exchanges

Securities exchanges constantly log massive volumes of valuable trading and securities data. Exchange data – at both summary and highly detailed levels of granularity – is highly valuable for internal analysis by the exchange itself, and also by numerous third parties looking to generate insights by conducting big data discovery against large volumes of exchange data sets. 

Because of the volume and velocity of exchange data, updating, hosting, and granting analytical access to it can be a challenge. 

But 1010data’s data sharing capabilities are specifically designed to enable and securely manage the sharing (and potential monetization) of data sets exactly like those generated by exchanges.

NYSE Euronext, the world’s largest family of exchanges, relies on 1010data to dynamically manage their data, including trade, quote and limit-order information. 1010data enables the accumulation, management, and ad-hoc analysis of historical trade data as well as over a billion new records per day. As data volumes have grown for NYSE Euronext, the 1010data platform has enabled the analytical solution to scale seamlessly.

Commercial Banking

The modern commercial bank is an end-to-end enterprise with sophisticated operations generating high volumes of complex, disparate data. Unlocking insights within that data can improve every facet of your business. Use the 1010data platform to bring together every aspect of the enterprise including: 

  • Marketing
  • Customer service
  • Staffing and branch analytics
  • Product analysis
  • Operational performance management
  • Risk management
  • And more 

Conduct big data discovery as well as standardized analytics and reporting that enable you to achieve improved performance, profitability, and customer satisfaction.

Consumer Credit

As a provider of consumer credit solutions, the industry is characterized by intense competition for customer acquisition and retention. Success requires you to drive usage and loyalty. To do this, you must have a deep understanding of your customer so you can offer:

  • Interesting credit product offerings 
  • Exciting incentives & benefits programs 
  • Excellent customer service

1010data offers you an unparalleled ability to analyze large volumes of internal disparate data as well as the third-party outside data required to succeed in today’s consumer credit industry to determine:

  • Customer churn
  • Risk
  • Profitability
  • Overall business performance management 
  • and more

Plan of Action

CONTENT ORIENTED STRATEGIES

Cost efficiencies

The most prolific turnaround strategy that needs to be implemented at the DSX is the pursuit of cost efficiencies. Cost efficiencies include a varied range of actions, which can all be characterised as belttightening or fire-fighting, with the aim of producing quick-wins in order to either stabilise finances in the short-term until more complex strategies are devised, or to quickly improve cash flow at the DSX. This assignment is focusing on the leadership and management aspects of the Douala Stock Exchange.

  1. Asset retrenchment

Asset retrenchment is often pursued in concert with, or immediately following, a cost efficiency drive. An asset retrenchment strategy is where areas of the firm that are underperforming are appraised to determine if efficiencies can be made, or whether it is best to divest the asset completely rather than allowing it to continue operating at a weaker level than the rest of the firm. In the case of the DSX, which units and departments are hampering the efficiency of the institution? Are there some units that can be closed to save money and refocus the money to others units that are more relevant to the financial institution core business? Retrenchment in the majority of cases it is the natural second step following cost efficiencies.

  1. Focus on core activities

A focus on the DSX core activities is a further turnaround strategy and frequently enacted in parallel with asset retrenchment. This strategy entails determining the products that have the potential to generate the greatest profits and refocusing the firms’ activities on these areas. In the case of the DSX, the institution may position itself as an exchange for alternative financial asset class, like currency, interest rate future (IRF), bulk and block deals and Exchange Traded Funds (ETF). This consists of launching new contracts for currency derivatives, IRF spread, interest rate options, etc. In conjunction with the above, it may be necessary for the DSX to undertake a redesign or restructuring to align itself more effectively with its core purpose, entailing the rationalisation, divestment or closure of units, and assets that do not fit with this purpose.

Focus allows the DSX to develop a clear efficient and effective strategy in its chosen core activities. This is frequently achieved through an increased focus on marketing, employing initiatives to improve prospective DSX’s partners understanding on the functioning of the institution, increase the number of marketing channels to be known, and employ cost-effective advertising. The DSX is very quiet, only known to those who are in the business and interested to learn more about the institution. 

  1. Build for the future

Build for the future is aligned with a recovery phase of the turnaround process. This recovery should naturally be undertaken in a cautious and considered manner, and will often be embarked upon as a growth strategy from the strong core focus that the institution has developed. In this phase the DSX must follow an entrepreneurially driven reconfiguration of assets.

PROCESS ORIENTED STRATEGIES

  1. Reinvigoration of Firm Leadership

Changing the CEO

The replacement of the firm’s incumbent CEO is frequently undertaken early in the turnaround process. CEO change is significantly linked to firms in distress and it is reported that in most successful turnaround situations, the replacement CEOs are appointed from outside the firm. What not apply the same thing at the DSX? Two predominant reasons explain why the current boss of the DSX must be replaced. First, the media and various shareholders place responsibility for the negative position of the financial market to the current CEO. Replacing the incumbent DSX can serve as a signal of change, both to this external audience and internally to the employees of the DSX. The change has symbolic power; it is a sign that the current situation is no longer tenable, that the government, the board and the new management of the DSX is serious in its willingness to change and that the turnaround process has begun.

Charismatic leadership is therefore needed during this period. A leaders who can remove doubts about the survival of a firm, and galvanize employees towards committed and focused efforts during difficult circumstances. This would suggest the benefit of ensuring a charismatic leader (CEO) is at the helm during the turnaround period.

The new CEO must work closely under the board of the institution. The fact that he is a charismatic leader does give him to drive the organization without the consent of the board and his chairman. The CEO and the chairman must be closed allies for a successful turnaround.

Changing the Top Management Team

In concert with CEO change, replacement of part of the Top Management Team (TMT) at the DSX will be important. Indeed, the new boos MAY bring its own trusted collaborators. However, there is a caution regarding the CEO and TMT succession which can result in high levels of internal disruption within the DSX. The introduction of new reporting relationships can cause additional stress for DSX current employees worried for their own security and status, as well as the deterioration in informal communication channels, which together can increase levels of ambiguity and instability throughout the DSX. Performing top managers must retain their positions, but poor managers must be shown the door.

  1. Culture change

In concert with leadership change, the role of culture change in facilitating the rejuvenation and re-adaptation of the DSX is needed. The change in culture to challenge past beliefs and taken for granted assumptions, which may no longer be relevant to the changed environment the DSX is facing. It is not just the systems or structures that need to change, but the behaviour and attitudes of the employees too, and that acknowledging and respecting this is important for success.

The theory of change

The theory of change is one important aspect of the culture change. During the process of creating the pathway of change, DSX employees will be required to articulate as many of their assumptions about the change process as they can so that they can be examined and even tested to determine if they are fit and ready to be part of the new start.

The 6 stages of the TOC:

  • Identifying long-term goals for the DSX
  • Backwards mapping and connecting the preconditions or requirements necessary to achieve that goal and explaining why these preconditions are necessary and sufficient.
  • Identifying basic assumptions about the context. What is needed to achieve the above long term goals at the DSX?
  • Identifying the interventions that your initiative will perform to create your desired change. The retrenchment and background checks are necessary to move forward at the DSX?
  • Developing indicators to measure your outcomes to assess the performance of your initiative. Monitoring and evaluations strategies are imperative to check the progress of the change the board, the new CEO and its team is looking.
  • Writing a narrative to explain the logic of the change.

The Public Sector Comparator (PSC)

In Public Administration, the Public Sector Comparator (PSC) is a tool that will be used during the turnaround strategy in determining the proper service provider for a any specific project of the DSX. It consists of an estimate of the cost that the DSX would pay were it to deliver a service by itself. It is used by the DSX to make decisions by testing whether a private investment proposal offers value for money in comparison with the most efficient form of the DSX procurement.

The logic model

The logic model will be used by the board and the new management to evaluate the effectiveness some programmes within the DSX. Logic models are usually a graphical depiction of the logical relationships between the resources, activities, outputs and outcomes of the DSX programmes. The underlying purpose of constructing a logic model is to assess the “if-then” (causal) relationships between the elements of the DSX programmes. By describing work in this way, DSX management has an easier way to define the work and measure it. Performance measures can be drawn from any of the steps. One of the key insights of the logic model is the importance of measuring final outcomes or results, because it is quite possible to waste time and money (inputs) on work activities, or produce outputs without achieving desired outcomes. It is these outcomes (impacts, long-term results) that are the only justification for doing the work in the first place. Put the money where the DSX mouth is will the objective.

The Program planning

One of the most important uses of the logic model is for program planning. It is going to help the DSX management to ‘plan with the end (vision of the DSX) in mind. It is suggested that the model needs to follow the sequence, from the inputs through to the outcomes that could not limit one’s thinking to the existing activities, programs and research questions. If the DSX decided to use the logic model, the institution will focus on the intended outcomes of a its particular programmes with the questions changing from ‘what is being done?’ to’ what needs to be done?’ By using this new reasoning, the logic model for the DSX programmes can be built by asking the following questions in sequence:

  • What is the current financial situation that the DSX intends to impact?
  • What will it look like when we achieve the desired situation or outcome?
  • What behaviors (organizational and structural) need to change for that outcome to be achieved?
  • What knowledge or skills do current DSX employees need before the change or turnaround?
  • What activities need to be performed to cause the necessary employees empowerment or capacity building?
  • What resources (financial or otherwise) will be required to achieve the desired outcome?

By placing the focus on ultimate outcomes or results, DSX management can think backwards through the logic model to identify how best to achieve the desired results.

Earned Value Management

Earned Value Management (Earned value management (EVM), or Earned value project/performance management (EVPM) is a project management technique for measuring project performance and progress in an objective manner.) It has the ability to combine measurements of the project management triangle:

  • Scope
  • Time
  • Costs

In a single integrated system, Earned Value Management is able to provide accurate forecasts of project performance problems to the DSX, which is an important contribution for project management within the institution.

Balanced scorecard systems

KPI – key performance indicators evaluate the success of an organization or of a particular activity in which it engages. Often success is simply the repeated, periodic achievement of some levels of operational goal (e.g. zero defects, 10/10 customer satisfaction, etc.), and sometimes success is defined in terms of making progress toward strategic goals. Key performance indicators define a set of values against which to measure. These raw sets of values, which are fed to systems in charge of summarizing the information, are called indicators.

Indicators identifiable and marked as possible candidates for KPIs can be summarized into the following sub-categories:

  • Quantitative indicators that can be presented with a number.
  • Qualitative indicators that can’t be presented as a number.
  • Leading indicators that can predict the outcome of a process
  • Lagging indicators that present the success or failure post hoc
  • Input indicators that measure the amount of resources consumed during the generation of the outcome
  • Process indicators that represent the efficiency or the productivity of the process
  • Output indicators that reflect the outcome or results of the process activities
  • Directional indicators specifying whether or not an organization is getting better.
  • Actionable indicators are sufficiently in an organization’s control to effect change.
  • Financial indicators used in performance measurement and when looking at an operating index.

Critical success factors

Potential risk treatments

Once risks have been identified and assessed, all techniques to manage the risk fall into one or more of these four major categories:

  • Avoidance intention is to eliminate, withdraw from or not become involved)
  • Reduction looks at how to mitigate the risk
  • Sharing the risk or transfering the risk from a source to a third party
  • Retention (accept and budget)

Risk reduction

Risk reduction involves reducing the severity of the loss or the likelihood of the loss from occurring. Acknowledging that risks can be positive or negative, optimizing risks means finding a balance between negative risk and the benefit of the operation or activity; and between risk reduction and effort applied. Outsourcing could be an example of risk reduction if the outsourcer can demonstrate higher capability at managing or reducing risks. For example, the DSX may outsource some work that is not directly related to its primary mission, and focus in handling the business operations itself. This way, the DSX can concentrate more on is main business without having to worry as much about other activities that may hamper the main business.

Risk sharing

Briefly defined as sharing with another party the burden of loss or the benefit of gain, from a risk, and the measures to reduce a risk. Risk retention pools are technically retaining the risk for the group, but spreading it over the whole group involves transfer among individual members of the group.

Risk retention

Risk retention is a viable strategy for small risks where the cost of insuring against the risk would be greater over time than the total losses sustained. All risks that are not avoided or transferred are retained by default. This includes risks that are so large or catastrophic that they either cannot be insured against or the premiums would be infeasible.

Conclusion

The future development of the capital market and the DSX will occurs when market players will be able to reach mutually acceptable compromises regarding the terms of financial transactions. Agents strike grand compromises, such as those between maturity and collateral, and between seniority and control, as well as myriad smaller ones. The assignment develops an appropriate strategy for sequencing the development of the DSX. The assignment also shows that the path of development will depend on economic, legal, political, institutional, and cultural factors; the framework that prompts policymakers to ask the right questions in diagnosing the deficiencies and hurdles. The assignment provides guidance for designing suitable policies, namely: the Theory Of Change (TOC), the Public Sector Comparator (PSC), the logic model expressed here by the programme planning, the Earned value management (EVM), the risk transfer (risk management) and the Strategic planning for the development and functioning of the Douala Stock Exchange that will contribute to the emergence of Cameroon by 2035.

The role of government in establishing, supervising, and facilitating the growth of the DSX is complex. It involves much more than simply establishing rules and creating supervising authorities. Flexibility must be written into the rules, and discretion must be accorded to agencies that support the DSX to act without going back to Parliament. Government regulators will not know what the market looks like or how it is changing without continual study. Finally, no market will succeed without public confidence. All of the factors that affect public confidence must be kept at the top of policymakers’ lists, and each factor must be continually examined to assure that its requirements are being achieved

Reference

Alajekwu, U. B., and Achugbu, A. A. (2012)  The Role of Stock Market Development on Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Time Series Analysis. African Research Review, Vol. 6 (1) Serial No. 24, Pp. 51-70  

Anderson, A.(2005) An Introduction to Theory of Change. The Evaluation Exchange. Harvard Family Research Project, Harvard Graduate School of Education, Volume XI(2)

Brownhilder, N.(2015) Will 10 Companies Boast The Douala Stock Exchange?

DSX (1999) Rules and Regulations of the Douala Stock Exchange. Available online www.douala-stock-exchange.com/…/1175346077-STOCK_EXCHANGE

Ndedi, A., Kouwos, M.B., Kuete, Y.D., Mua, K.K, and Enobi, A.L (2015). The Douala Stock Exchange (DSX) in Cameroon and its Discontents. Available online http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2678897

International Network On Strategic Philanthropy” (INSP) (2005) Theory Of Change Tool Manual

Itoe, B., Martin, T., Guilaine E., and Mache F, (2016) A 10 Year (2006-2015) Performance Analysis of the Douala Stock Exchange Market (March 26, 2016). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2755001 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2755001

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